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Verified events only · updated Aug 14, 2026

The GLP-1 market timeline, 2024–2027: every event that moved your price

The compounded market's rise, squeeze, and reinvention — plus the two 2026 shocks (an approved pill and Medicare's $50 program) — in one dated line. Every entry traces to a primary source in our catalog; nothing speculative gets a dot.

Dec 19, 2024FDA declares the tirzepatide shortage resolved

The legal foundation for mass compounding disappears; wind-down clocks start for 503A (60 days) and 503B pharmacies.

Mar 19, 2025503B bulk compounding ends

The outsourcing-facility pathway that supplied most telehealth programs closes. Patient-specific 503A compounding with documented clinical need becomes the only lane.

2025SURMOUNT-5 head-to-head publishes

Tirzepatide 20.2% average weight loss vs semaglutide 13.7% at 72 weeks — the first direct trial answer to the market's biggest question.

Dec 2025Oral Wegovy 25 mg launches

The first oral semaglutide for obesity reaches the US market — a real pill, with real fasting rules, at roughly $149/month self-pay via NovoCare.

Feb 2026FDA warning-letter sweep

Roughly thirty warning letters hit GLP-1 telehealth marketers still selling outside the patient-specific lane. Compliance posture becomes a consumer-facing issue.

Apr 1, 2026Foundayo (orforglipron) approved

Lilly's non-peptide daily pill becomes the first oral GLP-1 with no food or water restrictions — approved under the FDA's national priority voucher pilot, the first new molecule cleared that way.

Apr 6, 2026Foundayo ships via LillyDirect

Self-pay $149–349/month by dose, $25/month for eligible commercial insurance; retail and telehealth availability follows within days. The 'tirzepatide tablet' question now has an approved — different-molecule — answer.

Jul 1, 2026Medicare GLP-1 Bridge begins

CMS's demonstration covers Wegovy (injection and tablets), Zepbound KwikPen, and Foundayo for weight management at a $50/month copay for eligible Part D beneficiaries — through Dec 31, 2027. The first Medicare coverage of GLP-1s purely for weight loss.

2027 (scheduled)Negotiated prices and the BALANCE Model

Semaglutide's Medicare-negotiated price (~$274/month) takes effect and CMS's longer-term BALANCE Model is slated to succeed the Bridge — the next re-pricing of this entire market.

FDA / legal Eli Lilly Novo Nordisk Medicare / CMS Trial results
What the line means for prices: the compounded floor ($139–199 listed) now competes against an approved pill from $149 and, for eligible Medicare beneficiaries, brand product at $50. Our rankings and program finder already weigh all three lanes.